Facebook Worth $100 Billion?

By David Peralty
Contributing Writer, [GAS]

Facebook Worth 100 Billion?Do you think Facebook is stupid, or that it only appeals to the lowest common denominator of the people on the Internet? Would it then shock you that some people are already saying that the Facebook platform may one day be worth upwards of $100 billion dollars?

From Scobleizer

At the Graphing Social Patterns conference there was a guy who said that Facebook was worth $100 billion. He was properly derided, in my view, by most of the people at the conference.

But, one of his arguments was “would you have said that Google wasn’t going to be worth $100 billion back in 1999?” Yeah, I probably would have said you were smoking good crack if you told me that back then.

Problem is that if you said that back then you would actually have been right.

Now, in eight years will Facebook be worth $100 billion?

Personally, while I use Facebook, and it has become an e-mail replacement for my wife to communicate to her friends, I really hope that the service is eventually superseded by something better, more fulfilling, and with less of the application garbage that Facebook has allowed to crud up people’s profiles.

Sorry all, it was only fun when it was new. I really don’t want to be a vampire and bite people.

Pamcakes from 1938 Media gets it right in her recent video. All of these networks lack the ability to compartmentalize your life online, like it is offline. I don’t want my co-workers to see my status is “I am sick of work”. I don’t want my friends to get social media promotion requests.

What do you think, will Facebook become a $100 billion dollar company over the coming years, or is doomed to be replaced much like MySpace was?





7 Responses to Facebook Worth $100 Billion?

  1. Haha, yeah I'd be surprised if Facebook was worth $100 Billion or whether it will survive. But one of these things are bound to survive, my opinion is that Facebook is superior to the other major offerings at the moment, but there is a stack of competition… MySpace is more like a webpage community or blog community than a social network… Bebo is a lot like MySpace, with the skinning etc… Orkut seems to be a failure for Google – I'm not sure why they purchased it… Web360 is probably why – Yahoo tried to simply integrate their existing customers with social networks and Blogs… Hi5 would be great if I could speak spanish… Studivz would be cooler if they let me join (or told me what was going on in English).

    I think the strength Facebook has is the vampire biting applications. With 1 fad, steam runs out after a month. With user driven applications, Fads keep coming… and I'm not just talking about vampire bites, that obviously appeals to the same people that forward chain mail to avoid bad luck. But other applications exist for other people as well… I have 30Boxes for calendar integration, distributed file storage integration, ergscores.com training log and admittedly less useful applications like twitter, movies, scrabulous…

    Most useful applications represent tools that I can use outside of Facebook, but wouldn't have looked for without Facebook. The more gimmicky ones just pass the day.

    Bebo will be opening their developer API soon, so we will quickly see it go the way of Facebook. Then I'd say the match will be Facebook vs Bebo.

    However that is just my perception, if you check out the Alexa rankings, My Space is ranked #6 and Facebook #8…. Hi5 surprised me with a rank of #10, in comparison Yahoo is #1, Google is #2 and Bebo is #95.

    However looking at where the people are that goes to these sites is also interesting… 48% of people on myspace are from USA, 28.8% on Facebook are from the USA (10% Canada, 10% UK, 3% Egypt, 3% Puerto Rico), Hi5 has a breakdown of 12% Peru and only 1% USA. I think this indicates a much stronger international appeal. My Space is popular now but locked into the US market…

  2. Haha, yeah I’d be surprised if Facebook was worth $100 Billion or whether it will survive. But one of these things are bound to survive, my opinion is that Facebook is superior to the other major offerings at the moment, but there is a stack of competition… MySpace is more like a webpage community or blog community than a social network… Bebo is a lot like MySpace, with the skinning etc… Orkut seems to be a failure for Google – I’m not sure why they purchased it… Web360 is probably why – Yahoo tried to simply integrate their existing customers with social networks and Blogs… Hi5 would be great if I could speak spanish… Studivz would be cooler if they let me join (or told me what was going on in English).

    I think the strength Facebook has is the vampire biting applications. With 1 fad, steam runs out after a month. With user driven applications, Fads keep coming… and I’m not just talking about vampire bites, that obviously appeals to the same people that forward chain mail to avoid bad luck. But other applications exist for other people as well… I have 30Boxes for calendar integration, distributed file storage integration, ergscores.com training log and admittedly less useful applications like twitter, movies, scrabulous…

    Most useful applications represent tools that I can use outside of Facebook, but wouldn’t have looked for without Facebook. The more gimmicky ones just pass the day.

    Bebo will be opening their developer API soon, so we will quickly see it go the way of Facebook. Then I’d say the match will be Facebook vs Bebo.

    However that is just my perception, if you check out the Alexa rankings, My Space is ranked #6 and Facebook #8…. Hi5 surprised me with a rank of #10, in comparison Yahoo is #1, Google is #2 and Bebo is #95.

    However looking at where the people are that goes to these sites is also interesting… 48% of people on myspace are from USA, 28.8% on Facebook are from the USA (10% Canada, 10% UK, 3% Egypt, 3% Puerto Rico), Hi5 has a breakdown of 12% Peru and only 1% USA. I think this indicates a much stronger international appeal. My Space is popular now but locked into the US market…

  3. Its worth pointing out that in 1999, search engine technology was VERY mature. Google came along to solidify all the work that had been done over the years from places like AltaVista and others, and after adding their own new ideas, they created the "killer app" for searching. But its important to note they did it on the back of a VERY mature internet search paradigm.

    Social networking like Facebook is in its infancy in comparison. Basically, MySpace was the first attempt on a large scale, and Facebook is its second generation cousin to a degree. In contrast, Goggle was more like the 5th or 6th generation of search engine progeny. I expect to see several more innovations and changes before we see the "killer app" for social networking. Facebook is good for what it does, but the field as a whole is still too immature to produce any sort of final, killer app IMO.

    • Hi lbateman,

      I don't think you can say that the search engine 'wars' are over, just like the browser wars have continued.. though IE held nearly 99% for a while.

      The technologies are in my opinion just as mature as search engines were in 1999. And the technology just isn't as tough, search requires crawling massive numbers of webistes and maintaining that data. Social networking is only holding peoples information.

      It is much less information and it can be sorted in much more obvious ways.

  4. Its worth pointing out that in 1999, search engine technology was VERY mature. Google came along to solidify all the work that had been done over the years from places like AltaVista and others, and after adding their own new ideas, they created the “killer app” for searching. But its important to note they did it on the back of a VERY mature internet search paradigm.

    Social networking like Facebook is in its infancy in comparison. Basically, MySpace was the first attempt on a large scale, and Facebook is its second generation cousin to a degree. In contrast, Goggle was more like the 5th or 6th generation of search engine progeny. I expect to see several more innovations and changes before we see the “killer app” for social networking. Facebook is good for what it does, but the field as a whole is still too immature to produce any sort of final, killer app IMO.

    • Hi lbateman,
      I don’t think you can say that the search engine ‘wars’ are over, just like the browser wars have continued.. though IE held nearly 99% for a while.

      The technologies are in my opinion just as mature as search engines were in 1999. And the technology just isn’t as tough, search requires crawling massive numbers of webistes and maintaining that data. Social networking is only holding peoples information.

      It is much less information and it can be sorted in much more obvious ways.

    • Hi lbateman,
      I don’t think you can say that the search engine ‘wars’ are over, just like the browser wars have continued.. though IE held nearly 99% for a while.

      The technologies are in my opinion just as mature as search engines were in 1999. And the technology just isn’t as tough, search requires crawling massive numbers of webistes and maintaining that data. Social networking is only holding peoples information.

      It is much less information and it can be sorted in much more obvious ways.